Sunday, November 12, 2017

USD/JPY fails to break higher – Forecast Nov. 13-17 2017

USD/JPY made an attempt to move higher as the leaders met, but never went too far, finding itself falling back down. What’s next? The first release of Japanese GDP coincides with the all-important US inflation report. The question now is: bounce or break?

USD/JPY fundamental movers

Tax reform may eventually pass, but the corporate tax cut may be delayed. This was the main downer of the dollar. In addition, the Republicans suffered from a bad set of elections, undermining their stand.

The leaders of Japan and the US met in Tokyo and the meeting triggered some headlines about trade, as well as about North Korea. USD/JPY advanced at first, but never went too far.

Apart from that, BOJ Governor Kuroda confirmed the current BOJ policy in a speech. The Fed seems ready to raise rates despite lower inflation.

The upcoming week is certainly busier: we will get the PPI and then the CPI reports from the US. The retail sales report is also of high importance.

In Japan, the initial GDP report can confirm a seventh consecutive quarter of growth, but surprises are quite common here.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

115.35 is an old line that served as support when the pair traded on higher ground. 114.50 is the cycle high last seen in early July. The pair got close to that level.

113.50 was a temporary line of resistance on the way up in July. 113.70 was a separator of ranges in June.

112.20 used to be important in the past. It is closely followed by 111.80, which capped the pair in May. The swing high of early September at 111.30 serves as another point of interest.

Looking down, 110.70 was a separator of ranges in June and remains important. 109.60 was a gap line in late April, a gap that was never closed.

In June, the pair found support several times at 109.10 and this also works as support. Further below, the cycle low of 108.10 is of high importance.

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1 comment:

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