Sunday, March 9, 2014

EUR/USD Forecast, March 10-14
EUR/USD had a superb week. Industrial production data, Eurogroup and ECOFIN Meetings and inflation data are the highlights of this week. Here is a look on the major events and a little technical analysis for EUR/USD.

After the ECB made no changes in rates, Draghi gave the euro a huge boost. As he refrained from taking action to ease pressure on short-term borrowing rates caused by European banks paying back LTRO loans. Some analysts expected Draghi would end sterilization of its SMP program.

Major Events

1. French Industrial Production: Monday, 7:45.
2. Italian Industrial Production: Monday, 9:00.
3. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30.
4. Eurogroup meetings: Monday.
5. German Trade Balance: Tuesday, 7:00.
6. ECOFIN Meetings: Tuesday.
7. French Final Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 6:30.
8. Industrial Production: Wednesday, 10:00.
9. French CPI: Thursday, 7:45.
10. ECB Monthly Bulletin: Thursday, 9:00.
11. Employment Change: Friday, 10:00.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD began the week with range trading between the 1.37 and the 1.3773 area. After dropping to 1.3650, the pair raise to 1.37 and then jumped all the way to 1.3823. The ECB announcement sent it all the way to the highest since October 2011 at 1.3915, but the pair returned below to 1.3894.

The all important round number of 1.40 is of high political importance. Below, 1.3940 served as resistance back in 2011.

The 2013 high of 1.3895 is the top line looming above. 1.3830 was a serious peak that was seen with better volume and was challenged afterwards in 2013.

1.3773 was a cap in February and beforehand in December 2013 and now changing to strong support. The 1.37, is another support line after capping the pair in December.

1.3650 provided support in December and worked as resistance in September 2013, and is also a significant line.

The January 2014 low of 1.3515 provides minor support on the way down. 1.3450 worked as resistance in August 2013 and as support in September and October. It is now a key line on the downside.

In the US, the better than expected NFP confirmed the taper. The technical look seems quite bullish.

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  3. Wish me good luck for EUR/USD . SL : 13925 LAST swing high.yearly forecast is 1.25xx so if it does higher high , every high I will open a position with SL: 30 PIPS ;-)

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