Monday, September 30, 2013

USD/JPY Signal

Sell USD/JPY
Price 97.90
Take profit  at 97.20
Stop loss at 98.40
From 05:00 30-09-2013 GMT Till 10:00 30-09-2013 GMT
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NZD/USD Signal

Buy NZD/USD
Price 0.8280
Take profit  at 0.8360
Stop loss at 0.8230
From 03:50 30-09-2013 GMT Till 08:50 30-09-2013 GMT
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Sunday, September 29, 2013

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Friday, September 27, 2013

USD/CAD Signal

Sell USD/CAD
Price 1.0325
Take profit  at 1.0250
Stop loss at 1.0375
From 11:50 27-09-2013 GMT Till 16:50 27-09-2013 GMT
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AUD/USD Signal

Sell AUD/USD
Price 0.9355
Take profit  at 0.9275
Stop loss at 0.9410
From 07:20 27-09-2013 GMT Till 13:20 27-09-2013 GMT
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NZD/USD Signal

Sell NZD/USD
Price 0.8310
Take profit  at 0.8225
Stop loss at 0.8350
From 05:35 27-09-2013 GMT Till 10:35 27-09-2013 GMT
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Thursday, September 26, 2013

USD/CAD Signal

Sell USD/CAD
Price 1.0318
Take profit  at 1.0238
Stop loss at 1.0368
From 07:20 26-09-2013 GMT Till 13:20 26-09-2013 GMT
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AUD/USD Signal

Buy AUD/USD
Price 0.9360
Take profit  at 0.9440
Stop loss at 0.9310
From 05:20 26-09-2013 GMT Till 10:20 26-09-2013 GMT
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Wednesday, September 25, 2013

USD/JPY Signal

Sell USD/JPY
Price 98.65
Take profit  at 97.85
Stop loss at 99.15
From 16:05 25-09-2013 GMT Till 21:05 25-09-2013 GMT
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USD/CHF Signal

Buy USD/CHF
Price 0.9110
Take profit  at 0.9180
Stop loss at 0.9060
From 08:10 25-09-2013 GMT Till 14:10 25-09-2013 GMT
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Tuesday, September 24, 2013

NZD/USD Signal

Buy NZD/USD
Price 0.8254
Take profit  at 0.8334
Stop loss at 0.8194
From 14:10 24-09-2013 GMT Till 19:10 24-09-2013 GMT
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AUD/USD Signal

Buy AUD/USD
Price 0.9410
Take profit  at 0.9490
Stop loss at 0.9360
From 04:55 24-09-2013 GMT Till 09:55 24-09-2013 GMT
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Monday, September 23, 2013

GBP/USD Signal

Sell GBP/USD
Price 1.6035
Take profit  at 1.5965
Stop loss at 1.6095
From 14:45 23-09-2013 GMT Till 19:45 23-09-2013 GMT
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NZD/USD Signal


Sell NZD/USD
Price 0.8368
Take profit  at 0.8288
Stop loss at 0.8418
From 02:30 23-09-2013 GMT Till 07:30 23-09-2013 GMT
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Sunday, September 22, 2013

EUR/USD Forecast (September 23-27) - PART 2


EUR/USD Technical Analysis
Euro/dollar started the week with a gap above the 1.3325 line. This line quickly switched to support. After the big surprise, the pair shot higher and reached 1.3570 before stabilizing in range above 1.35.

Technical lines from top to bottom:
We start from much higher ground this week. 1.3940 was a peak in September 2011, two years ago, and is just before the round number of 1.40. 1.3870 capped the pair during the fall of 2011 and served as the “shoulders” in a H&S pattern. 1.38 is a round number and also worked as a temporary cap during that period of time.
1.3710 was the 2013 peak, and is getting closer. The line is the next big target.1.3650 temporarily capped the pair during that period of time.
1.3570 is the swing high of September 2013 and is the initial line of resistance now. 1.35 is a nice round number that also served as support after the big No-taper surge.
1.3450 was a peak during August 2013 and serves as minor support. 1.3415 was the peak back in June and works as another line of support.
1.3325 worked as a double top in early September and it was crossed only with a Sunday gap. It remains a clear separator of ranges. It is followed by 1.3240, which capped the pair in April and also had a role in August. It worked as support in September.
1.3175 capped the pair during July 2013. 1.3100 is worked as temporary resistance in December 2012 and is becoming more important once again, after capping a recovery attempt in June and then in July and providing support in September.
It is followed by 1.3050, which proved be strong support in May 2013, defending the round number in more than one occasion, but it is less significant now. The very round 1.30 line was a tough line of resistance. In addition to being a round number, it also served as strong support and recently worked as a pivot line.

Broken uptrend resistance
The line accompanying the pair since early June was broken by the big surprise. This can serve as a bullish sign.
The dust is now settling from the big NO Taper surprise that knocked down the dollar. However, fresh comments show it was a close call and that an “Octaper” could be on its way. The reaction in the euro was somewhat strong.
In the euro-zone, the recovery is green and fragile. A stronger euro can hurt this recovery. More importantly, the German elections pose a risk: unless the current CDU/CSU/FDP coalition wins a majority like now, Germany will enter a period of uncertainty regarding the new government. Eventually, the leading scenario is for a grand center-right / center-left coalition led by Merkel. This grand colation could be more pro-European, but not necessarily pro higher euro and not necessarily stable. We could see the pair retrace now.
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Saturday, September 21, 2013

EUR/USD Forecast (September 23-27)


EUR/USD certainly enjoyed the surprising NO Taper decision by the US Fed, and jumped to a much higher range. Can the momentum continue as the focus shifts back to Europe? German Federal Elections, Flash PMIs and Draghi‘s speech are the main events this week.
Ben Bernanke and his colleagues surprised with the decision NOT to taper QE. This boosted EUR/USD to levels last seen in February as the dollar retreated. Germans go to vote this week vote in federal elections, where Angela Merkel is expected to be reelected. However, she might have to settle for a grand coalition with the opposition rather than see a repeat of the current government, and this might cause uncertainty. German economic sentiment jumped from 42.0 to 49.6 points in August to the best level since April 2010, further evidence to the pick-up in the Eurozone.

1. German Federal Elections: Sunday, results expected before markets open. A German federal election will determine the 598 members of the 18th Bundestag, the main federal legislative house of Germany. Germans pick a constituency candidate with their first vote, and the second vote determines the relative strength of the parties in the Bundestag. Angela Merkel, whose conservative bloc constitutes around 40% seats, needs the FDP to do well in the federal vote to avoid having to turn to the opposition Social Democrats (SPD). A grand left-right coalition is desired by many voters, but such a government could prove unstable.

2. Mario Draghi speaks: Monday, 9:00.  ECB President Mario Draghi  is scheduled to speak at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, in Brussels. His words will cause volatility in the markets. Draghi was very careful about the euro-zone recovery and called it “green”.

3. Flash PMIs: Monday. Manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) releases continued to rise in the euro-area in August. German manufacturing sector improved to 52, from 50.7 in July, while analysts predicted an increase to 51.1. German services PMI advanced to 52.4 in the month, after an expansion of 51.3 in the previous month. Analysts expected a reading of 51.7. French manufacturing remained unchanged at 49.7 during August from the previous month. Regarding the services sector, PMI declined to 47.7, from 48.6 in July. Flash manufacturing PMI in the euro zone picked up to 51.3 in August, from 50.3 in July, while the flash services PMI flipped to expansion, reaching 51.0 in the month, from 49.8 reported in July. All in all, the Euro-area gained momentum in August with a two-year high expansion rate. Pick-up is expected to continue in the euro-area: French manufacturing sector is expected to reach 50.2, while services are climb to expand to 49.3. German Manufacturing is expected to edge up to 52.3, and Services to 53.2. The Eurozone manufacturing is expected to expand to 51.8 while services are expected to rise to 51.1.

4. German Ifo Business Climate: Tuesday, 8:00. The German Ifo Business Climate index advanced to 107.5 in August, up from 106.2 in July, rising above the 107.1 expected by analysts. Optimism among companies on future business developments increased indicating, German business activity picks up pace. Companies increase their investments, which is a good sign for next year’s growth rate. A further increase to 108.4 is forecasted.

5. Belgium NBB Business Climate: Tuesday, 13:00. Business confidence in Belgium, made a noticeable improvement in August, rising to -8.6 points from -12.0 in July. The reading surpassed predictions for a -11.1 reading. This reading crossed the -10 line, separating between growth and no growth, for the first time in two years. This is another good sign that the Euro zone is improving. Business confidence in Belgium is expected to further improve to -7.1.

6. GfK German Consumer Climate: Wednesday, 6:00. German consumer confidence declined slightly to 6.9 in August, from 7.0 in July, but remained close to its highest level in nearly six years. Analysts expected a small rise to 7.1but consumers appeared to be less optimistic, regarding inflation and the economic outlook despite encouraging data showing a boost in growth in the second quarter. A small rise to 7.1 is anticipated this time.

7. M3 Money Supply: Thursday, 8:00. The amount of domestic currency in circulation in the euro area fell less-than-expected in July, reaching 2.2% from 2.4% in the previous month, while analysts expected a drop to 2.0%. Loans to private sector narrowed by 1.9% on a yearly base in July, faster than a 1.6% decrease in June. Lending for house purchase, the most important component of household loans, increased 0.7% year-on-year. An increase to 2.3% is expected.

8. German CPI: Friday. Consumer prices in Germany remained unchanged in August, and the annual rate is expected to reach 1.5%. Prices were driven mainly by food and alcohol and tobacco prices. Energy also added upward price pressure to the index, making an annual 0.4% contribution. Overall services inflation was recorded at a an annual rate of 1.6%. CPI is expected to remain unchanged now.

9. French Consumer Spending: Friday, 6:45. French consumers spent less in June following May’s boost in consumption. French consumer spending declined 0.8 % in June mainly due to reduced energy spending as the weather got better after a cold May. Analysts expected a slight rise of 0.1% in June. Overall, consumer spending advanced 0.3% in the second quarter, amid higher energy spending but still going in line with government forecasts that the economy may have exited a shallow recession. Another rise of 0.1% is anticipated.

*All times are GMT

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Friday, September 20, 2013

USD/CHF Signal

Buy USD/CHF
Price 0.9100
Take profit  at 0.9180
Stop loss at 0.9050
From 11:50 20-09-2013 GMT Till 17:50 20-09-2013 GMT
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GBP/USD Signal

*Signal corrected
Sell GBP/USD
Price 1.6050
Take profit  at 1.5965
Stop loss at 1.6115
From 04:20 20-09-2013 GMT Till 09:20 20-09-2013 GMT
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Thursday, September 19, 2013

USD/JPY Signal

Sell USD/JPY
Price 98.88
Take profit  at 98.18
Stop loss at 99.48
From 07:40 19-09-2013 GMT Till 12:40 19-09-2013 GMT
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Wednesday, September 18, 2013

USD/JPY Signal

Sell USD/JPY
Price 98.98
Take profit  at 98.28
Stop loss at 99.58
From 12:40 18-09-2013 GMT Till 17:40 18-09-2013 GMT
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NZD/USD Signal

*Stoploss correction: 0.8174
Buy NZD/USD
Price 0.8224
Take profit  at 0.8304
Stop loss at 0.8174
From 06:50 18-09-2013 GMT Till 11:50 18-09-2013 GMT
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Tuesday, September 17, 2013

AUD/USD Signal

Sell AUD/USD
Price 0.9355
Take profit  at 0.9275
Stop loss at 0.9405
From 13:05 17-09-2013 GMT Till 18:05 17-09-2013 GMT
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GBP/USD Signal

Sell GBP/USD
Price 1.5898
Take profit  at 1.5808
Stop loss at 1.5958
From 09:45 17-09-2013 GMT Till 14:45 17-09-2013 GMT
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USD/CHF Signal

Buy USD/CHF
Price 0.9274
Take profit  at 0.9354
Stop loss at 0.9224
From 03:25 17-09-2013 GMT Till 18:25 17-09-2013 GMT

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Monday, September 16, 2013

USD/JPY Signal

Sell USD/JPY
Price 98.75
Take profit  at 97.95
Stop loss at 99.25
From 12:30 16-09-2013 GMT Till 17:30 16-09-2013 GMT

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AUD/USD Signal

Buy AUD/USD
Price 0.9353
Take profit  at 0.9433
Stop loss at 0.9293
From 09:15 16-09-2013 GMT Till 14:15 16-09-2013 GMT

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NZD/USD Signal

Buy NZD/USD
Price 0.8184
Take profit  at 0.8264
Stop loss at 0.8124
From 06:05 16-09-2013 GMT Till 11:05 16-09-2013 GMT

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USD/CAD Signal

Buy USD/CAD
Price 1.0305
Take profit  at 1.0375
Stop loss at 1.0255
From 23:05 15-09-2013 GMT Till 04:05 14-09-2013 GMT

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Sunday, September 15, 2013

EUR/USD Forecast (September 16-20) - PART 2

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD began the week struggling with the 1.3175. It then climbed sharply and conquered the 1.3240 line. Attempts to rise met resistance at 1.3325, a new line on the chart. The pair ended the week just below 1.33.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.37 was the 2013 peak, and is still far. 1.3590 capped EUR/USD back in February and is minor resistance.

1.3520 was a swing high in February, before the pair tumbled down. 1.3450 is the new peak of August 2013 and serves as the next resistance line.

1.3415 was the peak back in June and serves as a strong line of resistance, also after the break. 1.3325 worked as a double top in early September and is now a key line to the upside.

It is followed by 1.3240, which capped the pair in April and also had a role in August. It worked as support in September. 1.3175 capped the pair during July 2013. The pair closed very close to this line, and it will be pivotal.

1.3100 is worked as temporary resistance in December 2012 and is becoming more important once again, after capping a recovery attempt in June and then in July and providing support in September.

It is followed by 1.3050, which proved be strong support in May 2013, defending the round number in more than one occasion, but it is less significant now.

The very round 1.30 line was a tough line of resistance. In addition to being a round number, it also served as strong support and recently worked as a pivot line.

Downtrend resistance

Since mid August, a line can be seen capping the pair. A break above this line could release some steam, while a failure might send the pair downwards.

Draghi is cautious on the European recovery and other officials warn that it might be temporary. These worries come for good reasons: German figures have been weaker and many countries still have a long way to go.With a third bailout for Greece now seeming inevitable and with higher uncertainty over the German elections, there are quite a few reasons to worry.

However, the wild card is the Federal Reserve: tapering of 10-15 billion is becoming priced into the markets, as the general picture is positive. This will not be a huge surprise, even if it is dollar positive. However, nobody knows when the next stage will be. The tone of the statement accompanying the decision remains a mystery. In general, the US economy has an advantage over the European one and this should be reflected in a lower EUR/USD, but perhaps this will happen after the tapering and after the German elections.

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EUR/USD Forecast (September 16-20)

EUR/USD recovered and rose in range after two weeks of drops, riding on the dollar’s weakness. German ZEW Economic Sentiment, trade balance and inflation data are the highlights of this week. Confidence is on the rise in the Eurozone with Sentix index soaring to plus 6.5 in August from minus 4.9 in July indicating pessimism is entrenched in the euro-area. However despite this positive reading, industrial production data came out worse than expected, declining 1.5% in August. German elections are getting closer. In the US, data was generally weaker than predicted, but this will not necessarily stop the taper train.

1.Italian Trade Balance: Monday, 8:00. Italy’s foreign trade surplus shrank in June from May, reaching €3.62 billion but was stronger than the same month last year. The Italian economy depends on external demand to return to growth and the recent improvement in the Euro-area brings positive growth to Italy’s exports. The purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing jumped to a more than two-year high of 50.4 in July, signaling expansion in the third quarter. Surplus is expected to grow to €4.13 billion.

2.Eurozone Inflation data: Monday, 9:00. Euro Area inflation remained unchanged in July at 1.6%. in line with the ECB’s latest announcement and market forecast. However, the monthly reading recorded a drop of 0.5% from a prior of 0.1%. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes volatile items like food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, declined to 1.1% from 1.2% in the previous month. ECB President Mario Draghi confirmed that underlying price pressures are expected to remain “subdued “over the medium term. The ECB reduced its inflation forecast for 2013 and 2014 to 1.5% from 1.6% and 1.7% respectively. CPI is expected to gain 1.3%, while core CPI is projected to climb 1.1%. 

3.Eurozone Current Account: Tuesday, 8:00. The eurozone’s current account surplus declined to 16.9 billion euros ($22.6 billion) in June from 19.5 billion euros in May, This important indicator is closely monitored showing the ability of a country or area to pay its debts in the world. It is crucial for the long-term confidence of investors and trading partners. The eurozone’s current account surplus is expected to reach 18.3 billion euros.

4.German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. The ZEW economic think tank’s survey of economic sentiment advanced to 42.0 from 36.3 in July, reaching its highest level since March, beating forecast of a 40.3 reading. The recent strong data such as the big gain in industry output in June indicate a real improvement after a long, dry spell. Greece met its fiscal targets in the first seven months while Spain and Italy’s 10-year debt risk premiums have hit their lowest in two years indicating the Eurozone is emerging from recession. A further improvement to 45.3 is expected now.

5.ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. The euro area ZEW economic sentiment survey for the euro zone, edged up significantly to 44 points in July from June’s 32.8, beating analysts’ expectations for a reading of 37.4 points. Industrial production improved supporting signs of recovery in the Eurozone bloc. Inflation also increased on annual bases. ZEW economic sentiment survey for the euro zone is expected to climb to 47.2.

6.German Buba Monthly Report: Thursday, 10:00. German economic growth rebounded in the second quarter, contrary to thee stagnation in the first quarter. Economic activity increased significantly indicating the German economy has returned to its normal growth rate. German economic growth is expected to “normalize and stabilize” in the remainder of the year.

7.Consumer Confidence: Friday, 14:00. Consumer morale in the euro zone improved to -15.6 in August, beating market consensus of -17 and climbing to its highest level in two years. This rise offers further backing to the Euro-area’s long awaited recovery. has started to recover. Improved consumer confidence followed encouraging data on business activity in the euro zone in August, which picked up faster than expected, raising expectations that the third quarter will show further improvement. A stronger reading of -14 is expected this time.

*All times are GMT

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Saturday, September 14, 2013

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Friday, September 13, 2013

NZD/USD Signal

Sell NZD/USD
Price 0.8145
Take profit  at 0.8085
Stop loss at 0.8195
From 11:05 13-09-2013 GMT Till 16:05 13-09-2013 GMT

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GBP/USD Signal


Sell GBP/USD
Price 1.5810
Take profit  at 1.5735
Stop loss at 1.5860
From 07:25 13-09-2013 GMT Till 12:25 13-09-2013 GMT

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USD/CHF Signal


Buy USD/CHF
Price 0.9328
Take profit  at 0.9398
Stop loss at 0.9278
From 05:15 13-09-2013 GMT Till 10:15 13-09-2013 GMT

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Thursday, September 12, 2013

EUR/USD Signal


Sell EUR/USD
Price 1.3300
Take profit  at 1.3225
Stop loss at 1.3350
From 22:45 12-09-2013 GMT Till 3:45 13-09-2013 GMT

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AUD/USD Signal


Sell AUD/USD
Price 0.9265
Take profit  at 0.9200
Stop loss at 0.9300
From 18:15 12-09-2013 GMT Till 23:15 12-09-2013 GMT

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NZD/USD Signal


Buy NZD/USD
Price 0.8125
Take profit  at 0.8200
Stop loss at 0.8075
From 06:35 12-09-2013 GMT Till 11:35 12-09-2013 GMT

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USD/JPY Signal


Sell USD/JPY
Price 99.50
Take profit  at 98.50
Stop loss at 100.25
From 05:10 12-09-2013 GMT Till 10:10 12-09-2013 GMT

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USD/CHF Signal


Sell USD/CHF
Price 0.9300
Take profit  at 0.9210
Stop loss at 0.9370
From 12:25 12-09-2013 GMT Till 05:25 12-09-2013 GMT

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Wednesday, September 11, 2013

USD/JPY Signal


Sell USD/JPY
Price 100.25
Take profit  at 99.25
Stop loss at 100.95
From 13:05 11-09-2013 GMT Till 18:05 11-09-2013 GMT

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USD/CHF Signal


Sell USD/CHF
Price 0.9350
Take profit  at 0.9275
Stop loss at 0.9400
From 11:45 11-09-2013 GMT Till 16:45 11-09-2013 GMT

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USD/CAD Signal


Buy USD/CAD
Price 1.0360
Take profit  at 1.0430
Stop loss at 1.0305
From 05:55 11-09-2013 GMT Till 10:55 11-09-2013 GMT

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Tuesday, September 10, 2013

NZD/USD Signal


Sell NZD/USD
Price 0.8050
Take profit  at 0.7960
Stop loss at 0.8120
From 11:35 10-09-2013 GMT Till 16:35 10-09-2013 GMT

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GBP/USD Signal


Sell GBP/USD
Price 1.5695
Take profit  at 1.5615
Stop loss at 1.5745
From 07:25 10-09-2013 GMT Till 12:25 10-09-2013 GMT

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AUD/USD Signal


Sell AUD/USD
Price 0.9280
Take profit  at 0.9210
Stop loss at 0.9330
From 06:05 10-09-2013 GMT Till 11:05 10-09-2013 GMT

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Forex Trading For Newbies

Monday, September 9, 2013

USD/JPY Signal


Sell USD/JPY
Price 99.60
Take profit  at 98.80
Stop loss at 100.25
From 16:15 09-09-2013 GMT Till 21:15 09-09-2013 GMT

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USD/CHF Signal


Sell USD/CHF
Price 0.9388
Take profit  at 0.9318
Stop loss at 0.9438
From 07:45 09-09-2013 GMT Till 12:45 09-09-2013 GMT

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Forex Trading For Newbies