Saturday, July 13, 2013

EUR/USD weekly outlook: July 8 - 12

The euro fell to six-week lows against the broadly stronger dollar on Friday, as better-than-expected U.S. employment data for June fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon start to scale back its asset purchase program.

EUR/USD hit session lows of 1.2807, the pair's lowest since May 17 before settling at 1.2834, down 0.62% for the day and 1.35% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.2750, the low of March 27 and resistance at 1.2916, Friday’s high.

The Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 195,000 jobs in June, more than the 165,000 increase forecast by economists. May's figure was revised up to 195,000 from a previously reported 175,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.6% in June.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month the bank could begin tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program by the end of 2013 and wind it down completely by the middle of 2014 if the economy picks up as the central bank expects.

The euro dropped 0.73% against the dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank adopted a dovish stance on interest rates and took steps to give forward guidance to markets.

Speaking at the bank’s post policy meeting press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank expects to maintain interest rates at current or lower levels for an “extended” period of time.

Draghi said the decision to give forward guidance on interest rates was taken unanimously by policymakers and was “a very significant step forward” for the ECB.

The ECB left interest rates on hold at record lows of 0.5%.

Draghi also said risks to growth in the euro zone remain “on the downside” and reiterated that monetary policy will remain accommodative for as long as is necessary.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Wednesday's minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting, as well as Friday's closely watched data on U.S. consumer sentiment.

Talks by euro zone finance ministers and testimony by Mario Draghi to the European Parliament will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 8

In the euro zone, Germany is to produce official data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as data on the trade balance. Meanwhile, the eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers are to hold talks in Brussels.

In addition, ECB President Mario Draghi is to testify before the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in the European Parliament in Brussels.

Tuesday, July 9

Finance ministers from the European Union are to hold talks in Brussels.

Wednesday, July 10

In the euro zone, France and Italy are to release official data on industrial production.

Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its June meeting. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak.

Thursday, July 11

The ECB is to publish its monthly bulletin, which outlines the bank’s economic outlook.

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims, a leading economic indicator, as well as official data on import prices.

Friday, July 12

The euro zone is to release official data on industrial production.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on producer price inflation and preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.
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